 Presidente e Responsabile Diplomatico
- Group:
- Alto Consiglio
- Posts:
- 1,669
- Location:
- Cityprom, Piazza Indipendenza
- Status:
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Concerning the economic crisis, risks of war and environmental unsustainability, we are quickly drawing near the point of no return. The next three phases of the economic crisis will be: 1) within November 2009, the drop in primary consumption through the increase of unemployment and the decrease in the demand for basic goods; 2) within January 2010, the crash of the enterprises of real economy through the decrease in sales; 3) within April 2010, the currency depreciation through the burst of the banking rescues bubble and through the increase of the public debts.
The first phase is already in progress. Dozen of millions of workers have become unemployed and under occupied (part-time job). The retardation of the recession (which doesn’t mean neither end of crisis nor recovery) of the last months is only the effect of the increase of the costs met by enterprises in order to raise the supply (the promotion of sales causes an increase in consumption of goods and in services) and of the depletion of the reserves of goods after the strong drop in production of the previous period, as foreseen by the release of the 2nd July 2009 («from the value to the disvalue»). The unemployment has been increasing from September 2009 and the reserves of the of the families of unemployed people. In three months, from September to November 2009, the situation of many families in every Country will become unbearable. The effects of this first phase will be the revolt of masses.
The second phase will be starting as from December 2009, when the attempts of raising the supply will be exhausted and disappointed and enterprises of real economy will realize to have meet promotion costs without satisfactory return (sales). After the illusion of managing to recoup turnover in the last two weeks of 2009 (an impossible recovery because of the strong progressive impoverishment of a large part of population), in the first weeks of 2010 the enterprises will realize that they have met costs without return. This realization will cause mistrust and fear, it will reduce the will of initiative of enterprises, which will have to decide to reduce in a drastic way costs, causing a further unemployment. In this second phase, protests of enterprises, of their partners and workers will join the protests of the masses.
The third phase will begin at the end of 2010. After two months (February and March 2010) of downsizing of enterprises (many of those that have made profits until 2008 will be in loss in 2009), the tax revenue will reduce (of enterprises because they are in loss and of workers because they are without salary). In the same time, the effects of the unproductive investment (speculative) of the huge monetary resources (bank, virtual resources that are invented from scratch and that have been introduced into the banking system) will appear. It will be evident that these capitals have been let circulate in finance and for the only purpose to increase the quotation on the stock exchange. The savers will realize that the purchase power of money goes on decreasing while their deposits don’t produce interests (and often negative interests). There will be the run on transforming money into collectibles (precious goods, remainder interest, non-fungible goods), which are unproductive by their nature. And it will be the revolt of masses against all those who have taken away, speculated, wasted. From this third phase the confrontation between productive world (enterprises and workers) and unproductive world (states and banks). It will be the last step towards the total disorder. And the only solution will be to change.
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